Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
