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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.